The year that was. It’s going, going …
Let’s Ruminate …
Are you looking to buy in Portsea? Don’t hold your breath (unless you’re swimming — when under water, holding your breath is a Good Idea).
Peninsula action is usually a good indication of what you can expect in Salubria in the New Year.
This year? Little action. Those who have are holding.
Too many of those who have downsized expecting a fat gain in the transaction now find themselves with half the property and no windfall.
How can this be? Another triumph of ignorance ain’t bliss.
Gratuitous advice: If you are considering downsizing, first research, research, research.
Price Crunch Is Only Half The Story
The Woe-Betiders lamenting falls in property values are seeing only the averages. The top end? Different story. It’s been a good year. It’s sub-$5m where the crunch is being felt.
In MEL and SYD we facilitated more $10m+ sales in ’18 than ’17 — most off-market and under the radar.
Still hearing stories of prices falling off a cliff? 140 Kooyong Road selling for $9.8m three years ago and again last week for $13.4m is hardly free-fall.
AAA Exceptions Proving A Different Rule
The “Who Are You Trying To Kid?” Rule. Some examples:
- Shakespeare Grove. Bought for ~$20m a couple of years ago, now asking $52m.
- 2 Power Avenue. Paid $8m, want $16m.
- Dear Grant going to market pre-Christmas with six impossible dreams (waking up is so hard to do).
Headwinds? What Headwinds?
Those factors which were supposed to take the puff out of the top end:
- Chinese government saying enough is enough
- ATO crackdowns
- FIRB starting to do its job
In spite of all that, local buyers came out to play, demonstrating the underlying strength of the market.
That said, the top end fringe has been trimmed in ‘burbs including Balwyn and Canterbury.
Private auction. Just two parties at the table. We asked the Other Side to provide documentation showing they were fit to bid (or we wouldn’t).
Would an agent really unearth a dummy bidder for a private auction? Surely not.
Really? They did? How embarrassing.
Agents fighting for survival in the face of cruel cuts to ad budgets, vendors who decide not to sell, vendors who refuse to appoint an agent at all.
What to do?
Win every listing you can by promising prices only fools would rush into — then try to persuade their clients that everything has changed and they now have to be real.
It’s a tired old self-defeating tactic and no surprise that when once cricket teams of buyers would line up on a Saturday, today the loudest noise is the echo of agents’ footfalls.
Expressions of Interest campaigns continue to become more opaque, more confusing — now to the point where many of those running them have little idea of what is happening.
Far be it from us to take advantage of that.
Below $5m will continue to be belted by the banks. Above $10m will still be about availability, election or no election.
South Yarra and Red Hill (the good parts)
That’s a wrap. The market will now go to bed and stay there until it wakes up in February.
Take a break. Kick a little sand. There’s heaps of time to worry about trivialities like real estate in the new year.